Tuesday, October 07, 2008

My new favorite election site

For whatever reason, I'm following this election much more closely than I have previous presidential elections. Usually this means reading realclearpolitics.com and pollster.com, but I've recently discovered another website, fivethirtyeight.com, that makes the other sites look overly simplistic.

538 not only averages across polls, but it weights them by their sample size and accuracy in predicting previous votes.

It also runs various simulations using a variety of projections on what will happen in the election. Based on these (10,000!) simulations, here is what 538 currently predicts for the electoral college vote:

Thanks Richard for the link!


jeremy said...

I've been addicted to 538 for the last few weeks!

Brad Wright said...

It is addictive...