tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37421406.post2343392479561582362..comments2023-09-30T08:20:57.971-04:00Comments on Bradley Wright's Blog: The coming evangelical collapse?Brad Wrighthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07800309833079635465noreply@blogger.comBlogger3125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37421406.post-59288009204464664442009-05-17T14:06:00.000-04:002009-05-17T14:06:00.000-04:00Hi Brad,
Nice graph. It looked exactly like what...Hi Brad,<br /><br />Nice graph. It looked exactly like what I expected. You are exactly right about why the Catholic numbers why remaining constant.<br /><br />The decline in Mainline Christians is not primarily because people have been switching out, but because people have been dying off. I believe the Pew data shows that Evangelical Christians in the U.S. are facing that same generational horizon. For example the largest Evangelical group, the Southern Baptists are extremely skewed towards the older ages.<br /><br />I saw one older study (referenced in a book by Hadaway), that showed that 85% of mainline decline could be attributed to death and birth rates. This same type of generational horizon will really reduce the Evangelical numbers over the next forty years, some of which is starting to become evident through the slowing of evangelical growth, and will become more evident over the next 10 years.<br /><br />Mike Bell<br /><br />P.S. Could I use your graph at some point in time. Or could you send me your raw data.<br /><br />Thanks<br /><br /><br />mike_kim_bellAThotmailDOTcomAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37421406.post-3627308710869535662009-05-05T10:38:00.000-04:002009-05-05T10:38:00.000-04:00Okay, I fixed the y-axis.
As far as Catholics, it...Okay, I fixed the y-axis.<br /><br />As far as Catholics, it turns out that the Catholic church has lost a lot of native-born Catholics, but they have been replaced in number by immigrants from Latin America. So, the steady line hides a lot of change....Brad Wrighthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07800309833079635465noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37421406.post-87945604900615517012009-05-05T07:12:00.000-04:002009-05-05T07:12:00.000-04:00Just from a first glance, I would submit that this...Just from a first glance, I would submit that this is pretty damning evidence that the theological flexiblity in mainlain protestant churches has yielded nothing but failure. The two religions who have hewed fast to traditional convictions have been stable while the ones flapping in the cultural breeze have fallen.<br /><br />Or am I simplifying things too much?<br /><br />One nit to pick: the labeling on your chart is incorrect. If the y-axis is %, then the numbers should read 15, 20, 25, 30 and not .15, .2, .25, .3.<br /><br />As a Catholic, I'm more than willing to forgive you for this, but only if you go to confession.<br /><br />;-)K T Cathttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10259428595745509790noreply@blogger.com